COLA Ledger

An independent reference — not affiliated with the Social Security Administration. Every figure traced to the government publication that produced it.

The 2027 Social Security COLA — what the published data says so far

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on 0 of 3 third-quarter 2026 CPI-W months. September 2026 CPI-W — the month that determines the COLA — is released 08:30 ET Wednesday 14 October 2026.

If CPI-W holds at its June 2026 level through September

3.1%

That is a conditional statement, not a forecast. Change the assumption and the number changes — the other two scenarios below are on the same page for exactly that reason.

The base is already fixed, and it is a fact

Half of this computation is settled. The 2027 adjustment is measured against the third-quarter 2025 CPI-W average of 317.265 — 2025 being the last year in which an adjustment became effective. That figure will not move.

The fixed base: third-quarter 2025 CPI-W
MonthCPI-W index
July 2025316.349
August 2025317.306
September 2025318.139
Base quarter average317.265

What is published so far in 2026

The other half is the third quarter of 2026 — July, August and September. 0 of those 3 months are published. Everything else on this page is an assumption about the rest, and each one says so.

CPI-W readings published in 2026 so far, with their release dates
Reference monthCPI-W indexReleasedIn the third quarter?
January 2026317.94213 February 2026no
February 2026319.42211 March 2026no
March 2026323.50010 April 2026no
April 2026326.54112 May 2026no
May 2026328.82910 June 2026no
June 2026327.07514 July 2026no
July 2026not yet published12 August 2026yes — it counts
August 2026not yet published11 September 2026yes — it counts
September 2026not yet published14 October 2026yes — it counts

Three scenarios, each with its assumption on the row

None of these is a forecast and none is sourced to anyone’s model. Each takes the published months as given and applies one stated rule to the months that are not published yet.

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on 0 of 3 third-quarter 2026 CPI-W months. September 2026 CPI-W — the month that determines the COLA — is released 08:30 ET Wednesday 14 October 2026.

What each assumption implies for the 2027 adjustment, computed from the published CPI-W
IfMonthly pace appliedThird-quarter averageAdjustment would be
CPI-W holds at its 2026-06 level of 327.075 through September.0.00%327.0753.1%
Each unpublished month grows at the geometric mean monthly change over the 12 months to 2026-06.0.29%328.9693.7%
Each unpublished month grows at the geometric mean monthly change over the 3 months to 2026-06.0.37%329.4823.9%

The flat-carry row is shown first and highlighted because its assumption is the only one that requires no view about the future at all: it simply carries the last published index forward unchanged. Pace in the other two rows means the geometric mean monthly change over the stated window, compounded through September — the exact definition the engine implements, so every figure here is reproducible from the published index values.

What each scenario would mean in dollars

Projection — not an announced figure

Projection based on 0 of 3 third-quarter 2026 CPI-W months. September 2026 CPI-W — the month that determines the COLA — is released 08:30 ET Wednesday 14 October 2026.

Gross monthly benefit under each stated assumption
AssumptionAdjustmentAverage retired workerA $2,000 benefit
Flat carry3.1%$2,135 +$64$2,062 +$62
Trailing 12-month pace3.7%$2,147 +$76$2,074 +$74
Trailing 3-month pace3.9%$2,151 +$80$2,078 +$78

Gross figures only. The 2027 Medicare Part B premium does not exist yet and no net figure is shown for it anywhere on this site.

The 2027 Part B premium is a separate event, a month later

CMS announces the following year’s Part B premium in mid-November. For about a month after the adjustment is announced, a gross figure exists and a net one does not. This site will not estimate the premium to close that gap. In 2026 the premium was $202.90 and it took 31.96% of the raise on a $2,000 benefit — that is the shape of what is coming, not a prediction of its size. Why the calendar works this way.

What happens on announcement morning

This page does not get replaced. The URL you are reading stays exactly where it is and becomes the announcement page the moment SSA publishes — the projection is not thrown away, it is superseded in place, with the scenarios left visible so the record is legible afterwards.

The build has one gate that matters more than any other that morning: our computed adjustment must equal SSA’s announced one. If they disagree, nothing publishes. A disagreement would mean either our reading of the CPI-W or our understanding of the rule is wrong, and both are things to find out before publishing rather than after.

This page is recomputed and redeployed within hours of every CPI release. Remaining 2026 releases: 12 August 2026, 11 September 2026, 14 October 2026, 10 November 2026, 10 December 2026.

One month in this series will never exist

BLS did not publish an October 2025 Consumer Price Index. Due to a lapse in appropriations, BLS could not collect October 2025 reference period survey data and was unable to retroactively collect these data.

It does not affect this computation — the third quarter of 2026 and the third quarter of 2025 are both intact — but any code that walks the series month by month across it will produce wrong answers silently. What the gap does, and what it does not do.

Common questions

When is the 2027 COLA announced?

The September 2026 CPI-W is scheduled for 08:30 ET Wednesday 14 October 2026, and SSA has announced the adjustment the same morning in every recent year. The date is soft — a shutdown moved the 2025 release nine days — but the event is reliable, because September data is collected before the fiscal year turns.

What is the 2027 COLA going to be?

Nobody knows, including this site. What can be stated is arithmetic: the base is fixed at 317.265, 0 of the three comparison months are published, and each scenario on this page states exactly what it assumes about the rest. If CPI-W simply holds at its June 2026 level, the result would be 3.1%.

Why does this page not just give one number?

Because one number would be a claim about the future, and the honest artifact is the arithmetic plus the assumption. A projection that was clearly conditional and got superseded is not an error. A projection that read as a claim is.

Will my check go up by the full 2027 adjustment?

Not net. The Medicare Part B premium for 2027 is announced separately in mid-November, a month after the adjustment, and it comes out of the payment. Until CMS publishes it no honest net figure exists, and this site will not estimate it.

The arithmetic behind all of this

Sources and freshness

Projection recomputed on every build from the committed CPI-W series. COLA Ledger publishes no third-party forecast and no point estimate.

Page figures last verified against the sources above on 10 August 2026. BLS data retrieved 10 August 2026. BLS.gov cannot vouch for data or analyses derived from these data after retrieval. Corrections: the correction log · support@inventum.com.au